Signal states
Under each ticker is a state: a short description of what was measured, never an instruction. It is built from how far the price is below its recent peak, how much risk options are pricing, and — for stocks — the 200-day trend.
- Uptrend — After a strong run, the move has not turned down — or market makers' hedging may extend it.
- Highs — Trading near its recent peak — not a pullback.
- Reversing — After a strong run, short-term momentum is turning down.
- Downtrend — Price is pulling back, but the readings do not line up into a calm dip.
- Dip — A pullback while options fear stays inside the range this rule looks for.
- No Signal — Not enough data to classify this ticker yet.
Every state and its line
Each state comes with a line, Main · Detail. X% stands for the measured value; the N-day high is the 90-day peak for ETFs and the 252-day peak for stocks.
Uptrend
After a strong run, the move has not turned down — or market makers' hedging may extend it.
- Overextended · X% in 20 days — A Reversing test is met, but the 5-day return is still rising.
- Overextended · Market makers short gamma — A Reversing reading while Next-expiry net GEX is negative and price is above the gamma flip: market makers' hedging tends to extend the up-move.
The only case where GEX changes the family: a Reversing reading shows as Uptrend when market makers are short gamma above the gamma flip.
Highs
Trading near its recent peak — not a pullback.
- Near high · X% below N-day high — Drawdown under 2% (ETF) / 5% (stock).
- At high · N-day high — At or above the window high.
Reversing Reversing+
After a strong run, short-term momentum is turning down.
- Overextended · Turning near peak — 20-day return at least +8% (ETF) / 10% (stock), within 2% of the window high, and the 5-day return has turned to zero or below.
- Overextended · Momentum turning — 20-day return at least +15% (ETF) / 18% (stock), and the 5-day return has turned to zero or below.
- New high · Momentum turning — At a new window high, and the 5-day return has turned to zero or below.
Reversing+ when price is at or above the Next call wall. A new high also when Next net GEX is positive; near the peak also when Next net GEX is positive and at least 0.20% (ETF) / 0.70% (stock) of 20-day dollar volume.
Downtrend
Price is pulling back, but the readings do not line up into a calm dip.
- Pullback ongoing · X% in 5 days — A Dip reading, but the 5-day return is negative and falling faster than a day earlier.
- Moderate / Significant pullback · Low–Extreme volatility — Moderate or deep drawdown, but volatility outside that depth's percentile band (above the 85th is a spike).
- Shallow pullback · X% below N-day high — Drawdown 2%–5% (ETF) / 5%–15% (stock): less than a moderate pullback.
- Extreme drawdown · X% below N-day high — Stocks only: drawdown over 50%.
- Trend broken · 15%+ below 200-day — Stocks only: price at or below 85% of its 200-day average, whatever the drawdown.
Dip Dip+
A pullback while options fear stays inside the range this rule looks for.
- Moderate pullback · Low–Extreme volatility — Drawdown 5%–15% (ETF) / 15%–30% (stock), volatility 20th–65th percentile, and the 5-day decline is not accelerating.
- Significant pullback · Low–Extreme volatility — Drawdown over 15% (ETF) / 30% (stock), volatility 20th–100th (ETF) / 20th–80th (stock) percentile, and the 5-day decline is not accelerating.
Dip+ when price is at or above the Next gamma flip and Next net GEX is at least 0.20% (ETF) / 0.70% (stock) of 20-day dollar volume.
No Signal
Not enough data to classify this ticker yet.
- Insufficient data · History unavailable — Fewer than 20 daily bars, or the drawdown cannot be computed.
- Insufficient data · Volatility unavailable — Moderate or deep drawdown, but no volatility history to place it in a band.
How a state is decided
The checks run in this order; the first one that matches sets the state.
- Fewer than 20 days of prices → No Signal.
- A strong 20-day run, or a new high, once the last 5 days have turned down → Reversing. While the run is still rising → Uptrend.
- Stocks only: more than 50% below the peak, or the price at or under 85% of its 200-day average → Downtrend.
- Close to the peak → Highs.
- A moderate or deep pullback with volatility inside the expected range → Dip. If the last 5 days are still falling faster, or volatility is outside the range → Downtrend. No volatility history → No Signal.
- A shallow pullback → Downtrend.
Thresholds
| ETF (90-day peak) | Stock (252-day peak) | |
|---|---|---|
| Highs | less than 2% below peak | less than 5% below peak |
| Moderate dip | 5%–15%, volatility 20th–65th percentile | 15%–30%, volatility 20th–65th percentile |
| Deep dip | over 15%, volatility 20th–100th percentile | over 30%, volatility 20th–80th percentile |
| Reversing — 20-day return near the peak / overextended | +8% / +15% | +10% / +18% |
See Drawdown, Implied volatility and SMA200 trend for the readings themselves.
The + mark
A + (a tinted circle behind the icon) means the options market's positioning for the Next expiration agrees with the state; the line then ends in GEX-confirmed. Only Dip and Reversing have one.
- Options positioning never changes a Dip, and missing options data never blocks a state.
- It can turn a Reversing reading into Uptrend when market makers' hedging is likely to extend the move (price above the gamma flip with negative gamma).
- The cutoffs are measured across this board and are provisional. They read one weekly expiration, so they move with the weekly options cycle.